‘Grim future’ for Great Barrier Reef unless global heating kept to 2C, study finds

<p>University of Queensland modelling says reef will suffer ‘rapid coral decline’ in coming decades but could still recover if targets met</p><ul><li><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/10/sign-up-for-the-clear-air-australia-environment-newsletter-with-adam-morton?CMP=cvau_sfl">Sign up for climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s free Clear Air newsletter here</a></p></li></ul><p>The Great Barrier Reef will undergo “rapid coral decline” until 2050 but could recover if global heating is kept below 2C, according to the most detailed modelling so far of the future of the world’s biggest coral reef.</p><p>The finding contradicts a widely held view that the decline of the oceanic gem would become irreversible as global temperatures rise above 1.5C, with <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/oct/13/coral-reefs-ice-sheets-amazon-rainforest-tipping-point-global-heating-scientists-report">one report last month</a> suggesting the world’s tropical corals had already reached a tipping point of long-term decline.</p><p><strong><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/10/sign-up-for-the-clear-air-australia-environment-newsletter-with-adam-morton?CMP=copyembed">Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter</a></strong></p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/05/great-barrier-reef-coral-bleaching-decline-global-heating-recovery">Continue reading...</a>